Research


Working Papers and ongoing work


  • The Combined Effect of Door-to-Door and Pay-as-You-Throw: Evidence from Emilia-Romagna | with Flisi and Paruolo | PDF

  • Who is not concerned about climate change? A multilevel exploration of demographic factors, exposure to natural disasters and media coverage | with Bastianelli, Le Blanc, Schnepf and Tiozzo | available upon request

  • News, Sentiment and Trading | with Kong and Manzan | PDF

  • A climate stress testing exercise on loans to European SMEs | with Chen, Ding, Calabrese, Fatica | R&R | PDF

  • Interpretable Bayesian machine learning for assessing the effects of climate news shocks on firm-level returns | with Frattarolo, Hauzenberger, Hirschbuehl, Huber, Onorante, Pfarrhofer, Tiozzo | R&R | PDF

  • Crypto news and policy innovations: Are European markets affected? | with Bellia, Di Girolamo, Rho | PDF

  • Nowcasting and aggregation: Why small Euro area countries matter | with Babii, Ghysels, Striaukas | R&R | PDF

  • Flooded credit markets: physical climate risk and small business lending | with Fatica, Rho | PDF

  • Detecting Anti-dumping Circumvention: A Network Approach | with Croux, Wilms | PDF


Published Papers


11.  Nowcasting economic activity in European regions using a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model | with Frattarolo, Hauzenberger, Hirschbuehl, Huber, Onorante, Pfarrhofer, Tiozzo | International Journal of Forecasting | 2025 | in press |   PDF   |   Code

10.  Sentiment Analysis of Economic Text: A Lexicon-based Approach | with Consoli, Manzan, Tiozzo, Tosetti | Economic Inquiry | 2025 | 63(1), 125-143 |   PDF   |   Economic Lexicon

9.  Household Debt and Economic Growth in Europe | with Manzan, Tosetti | Macroeconomic Dynamics | 2025 | 29, e10 |   PDF   |   Woking paper

8.  Forecasting GDP in Europe with textual data | with Consoli, Manzan | Journal of Applied Econometrics | 2024 | 39(2), 338–355 |   PDF   |   Code

7.  Forecasting with Economic News | with Consoli, Manzan | Journal of Business & Economic Statistics | 2023 | 41(3), 708-719 |   PDF   |   Code

6.  Forecasting Loan Default in Europe with Machine Learning | with Manzan, Tosetti | Journal of Financial Econometrics | 2023 | 21(2), 569–596 |   PDF   |   Online appendix

5.  Testing Big Data in a Big Crisis: Nowcasting Under Covid-19 | with Frattarolo, Onorante, Pericoli, Ratto, Tiozzo | International Journal of Forecasting | 2023 | 39 (4), 1548-1563 |   PDF   |   Data

4.  Fine-grained, aspect-based sentiment analysis on economic and financial lexicon | with Consoli, Manzan | Knowledge-Based Systems | 2022 | 247, 108781 |   PDF   |   Code

3.  Volatility Spillovers in Commodity Markets: A Large t-Vector AutoRegressive Ap- proach | with Croux, Wilms | Energy Economics | 2020 | 85 |   PDF   |   Code

2.  Multi-class Vector AutoRegressive Models for Multi-store Sales Data | with Wilms, Croux | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C | 2018 | 67, 435-452 |   PDF   |   Code

1.  Commodity Dynamics: Sparse Multi-class Approach | with Croux, Wilms | Energy Economics | 2016 | 60, 62-72 |   PDF   |   Code


Peer-reviewed Chapters and Proceedings


9.   Beyond the Headlines: Sentiments and Morals Impacting Female Employment in Spain | with Araque, Berlingieri, Colagrossi, Consoli, Gatti, Kalimeri, Mauri | Workshop Proceedings of the 17th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media | 2023 | PDF

8.   On the Development of a European Tracker of Societal Issues and Economic Activities Using Alternative Data | with Colagrossi, Consoli, Panella | Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases. ECML PKDD 2022. Communications in Computer and Information Science | 2023 |
PDF

7.   Tracking socio-economic activities in European countries with unconventional data | with Colagrossi, Consoli, Panella | Proceedings of the 2022 ACM Conference on Information Technology for Social Good | 2022 | PDF

6.   Financial Forecasting with Word Embeddings Extracted from News: A Preliminary Analysis | with Consoli, Wang | Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases. ECML PKDD 2021. Communications in Computer and Information Science | 2022 | PDF

5.  Explaining Sentiment from Lexicon | with Consoli, Manzan | The 6th International Workshop X- SENTIMENT at ESWC2021, CEUR Workshop Proceedings | 2021 | PDF

4.   Introduction on Data Science Technologies in Economics and Finance | with Consoli, Reforgiato, Saisana, Tiozzo | Data Science in Economics and Finance | 2021 | PDF

3.   Exploring the Predictive Power of News and Neural Machine Learning Models for Economic Forecasting | with Consoli, Manzan | MIDAS 2020. Lecture Notes in Computer Science | 2021 | PDF

2.   Fine-grained, aspect-based semantic sentiment analysis within the economic and financial domains | with Consoli, Manzan | 2020 IEEE 2nd Int. Conference on Cognitive Machine Intelligence | 2020 | PDF

1.   Monitoring the Business Cycle with Fine-Grained, Aspect-Based Sentiment Extrac- tion from News | with Consoli, Manzan | MIDAS 2019. Lecture Notes in Computer Science | 2019 | PDF