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Sentiment Analysis of Economic Text: A Lexicon-based Approach

We propose an economic lexicon (EL) specifically designed for textual applications in economics. We construct the dictionary with two important characteristics: (1) to have a wide coverage of terms used in documents discussing economic concepts, and …

Household Debt and Economic Growth in Europe

We investigate the role and impact of household debt on the economic performance of the European economy during the double-dip recession of 2008-2013. We use a loan-level data set of millions of residential mortgages originated between 2000 and 2013 …

Forecasting GDP in Europe with Textual Data

We evaluate the informational content of news-based sentiment indicators for forecasting the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the five major European economies. The sentiment indicators that we construct are aspect-based, in the sense that we consider …

Forecasting with Economic News

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the informational content of sentiment extracted from news articles about the state of the economy. We propose a Fine-Grained Aspect-based Sentiment analysis that has two main characteristics: 1) we consider only …

Forecasting Loan Default in Europe with Machine Learning

We use a large data set of over 12 million residential mortgages observed over time to investigate the loan default behavior in several European countries. We model the occurrence of default as a function of borrower characteristics, loan-specific …

Testing Big Data in a Big Crisis: Nowcasting under COVID-19

Fine-Grained, Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis on Economic and Financial Lexicon

The last two decades have seen a tremendous increase in the adoption of Semantic Web technologies as a result of the availability of big data, the growth in computational power and the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. …

Volatility spillovers in commodity markets: A large t-vector autoregressive approach

Volatility is a key measure of risk in financial analysis. The high volatility of one financial asset today could affect the volatility of another asset tomorrow. These lagged effects among volatilities - which we call volatility spillovers - are …

Multi-class vector autoregressive models for multi-store sales data

Retailers use the vector auto‐regressive (VAR) model as a standard tool to estimate the effects of prices, promotions and sales in one product category on the sales of another product category. Besides, these price, promotion and sales data are …

Commodity dynamics: A sparse multi-class approach

The correct understanding of commodity price dynamics can bring relevant improvements in terms of policy formulation both for developing and developed countries. Agricultural, metal and energy commodity prices might depend on each other: although we …